UFC 1092/6/10 - Las Vegas, NVCompuStrike Analysis: Couture vs. ColemanRecent FightsCouture W 3 Vera |
Nogueira W 3 Couture |
Lesnar KO 2 Couture |
Coleman W 3 Bonnar |
Rua KO 3 Coleman |
Fedor W 2 (Sub) Coleman
Couture , 46, vs. Coleman, 45, in the first fight in history between active UFC Hall of Famers. They were supposed to meet at UFC 17- more than 10 years ago, before a Couture injury forced him out of the fight. They did meet however as collegiate wrestlers, in 1989 at an Olympic Festival Freestyle match which Coleman won by one point. Couture, the two-time UFC Light Heavyweight champ and three-time UFC Heavyweight champ, is a 4-1 favorite this time around.
In his last outing (UFC 105), fighting at a measured pace, Couture landed 57 of 86 total strikes (66%) enroute to a controversial, unanimous decision win over Brandon Vera, who landed 32 of 62 total strikes (52%). 16 of Vera’s 32 landed strikes were in the second round, eight of which were leg strikes. 39 of Couture’s 57 landed strikes for the fight were arm strikes (throwing 65-60%). Vera landed just 12 of 28 arm strikes. Couture, returning to light heavyweight, landed 18 leg strikes (17 knees), but was successful on just one of six takedown attempts. Vera had one takedown and secured one dominant position, both in the last round, as Couture, who caught a beating in his decision loss to Antonio Noguiera just six weeks earlier, faded down the stretch.
Fighting at heavyweight, Couture was outlanded 89-68 in total strikes in his unanimous decision loss to Noguiera at UFC 102. 53 of Nog’s 89 strikes landed in the fight were from the ground. The first round was a shootout, as Couture had a 34-24 edge in landed strikes (all arm strikes for both), but he was knocked down and nearly choked out. Round two started well for Couture, before Noguiera swept him, took the mount and attempted a arm triangle choke. That led to 33 ground strikes landed for Noguiera, who along with the submission attempt, secured two dominant positions. Couture was dropped again in round three and outlanded 26-15. 20 of Nog’s landed strikes were from the ground.
Giving away 45-lbs and coming off a 448-day layoff, Couture was ko’d in round two by Brock Lesnar at UFC 91. Couture held his own in round one, despite getting outlanded 13-6 in total strikes by Lesnar, who clearly landed the harder shots. A Lesnar right hand wobbled Couture in round two before another right hand dropped ‘The Natural’. Lesnar followed with 23 hammerfists and a new UFC heavyweight champ was crowned. Overall, Lesnar landed 45 of 86 total strikes to just 12 of 22 for Couture.
Coleman made his UFC debut in July of ’96, winning three fights in one night to become the organization’s inaugural heavyweight champion. Coleman remained a heavyweight through his second round submission loss to Fedor at Pride 32 in October of 2006. In that 10-minute first round, Coleman was outlanded 53-3 by Fedor in total strikes. The Last Emperor landed 28 arm strikes, knocking Coleman down. The knockdown led to 25 landed ground strikes by Fedor. Coleman did score a takedown in round two and landed seven ground strikes before Fedor caught him in an armbar, causing a tapout.
“The Hammer” layed off 27-months, dropped down to light heavyweight and was ko’d in the third round by Mauricio Rua at UFC 93. Coleman won their first meeting, at Pride 31, via tko, as Rua could not continue due to a broken arm. Coleman scored a takedown seconds into the rematch and scored from the ground before Rua escaped, and scored his own takedown. Rua then got better of the action the rest of the round, battering Coleman with an assortment of kick, knees and a right hand that produced a knockdown late in the round. Rua had a 33-15 egde in total strikes landed in the round, among them, 11 leg strikes and 12 strikes landed from the ground.
Coleman, showing the effects of the cut in weight to 205 lbs., plodded around the cage in round two, often with his hands at his side. Rua, tiring as well, managed to outland Coleman 47-19 in the round. Coleman scored two takedowns, but cound not keep Rua on the mat. Coleman scored another takedown in the third and landed 26 ground strikes, but Rua’s arm striking (16 landed in the round) was the difference, as a late flurry produced the ko win with just :24 left in the fight.
Six months later, Coleman looked better physically at 205 lbs and it showed in his performance, as he decisioned Ultimate Fighter star Stephan Bonner over three rounds at UFC 100. Despite a Coleman takedown and a dominant position, Bonnar dominated round one, landing 32 total strikes (31 from the ground) to just two for Coleman. Coleman scored another takedown early in round two and opened a deep gash on Bonnar’s forehead with an elbow. Bonnar outlanded Coleman 28-23 in total strikes, but Coleman landed the harder hammerfists and overall, the harder shots. Fighting from underneath Coleman for most of the fight took its toll on Bonnar in round three, as Coleman controlled the round, scoring yet another takedown and landing 11 ground strikes. Coleman also attempted a rear naked choke as the round wound down.
Coleman should be even more acclimated to the 205-lb weight for this fight. This will be Couture’s third fight in 151 days, his most active stretch in an illustrious 13-year career- at age 46? Coleman hasn’t beaten anyone of Couture’s caliber in many moons, yet styles make fights and Coleman has the style to pull off the upset. Coleman has to focus on the takedown, while Couture will want to keep it on the feet and employ his dirty boxing technique. Couture by ko, late in round three.
